The media has consistently over-hyped Obama's chances of victory in this coming election. With the economy in the midst of a correction (not a depression as some would have), a war in Iraq that is increasingly unpopular (even though we are nearing victory), and an incumbent president with rather low poll numbers, McCain has an uphill climb. Frankly, this should be a landslide for Obama. The incumbent party has never won an election when the economy is in a downturn, but nonetheless, McCain has fought well. And he might well succeed. The Campaign Spot on the National Review website says that Virginia may not be lost to the Republicans. Northern Virginia, as a percentage of registered voters in the state, has remained almost constant from the 2004 election until now. In fact, the greatest registration increases have come from counties where Bush won by over 60%. These voters could all very well be Democrats, but the situation in VA is not dire for McCain. In Pennsylvania, many people think McCain is crazy for focusing on this state. RealClear has an average of 9.8% in Obama's favor. But he does have a strategy. Rural PA will go Republican, Philadelphia, Democrat. The Northeastern Extension tilts Democrat, but basically splits the vote. Pittsburgh is the area of interest. If McCain can win Pittsburgh by a wide enough margin to offset Philadelphia (maintaining his margins in the rural areas and keeping at least 40% of the vote on the Northeastern Extension), he can win the state. Kerry only won the state by 2.5% (Gore, 4.2%), so it is possible. A Pennsylvania win would offset losses in Colorado, New Mexico, and coupled with a win in VA, would offset a loss in Nevada. McCain needs to win Florida and Ohio, however. And I wouldn't count those states out.
So, yes, McCain faces an uphill climb, but it is achievable. We'll just see how it all plays out on the 4th. As much as the mainstream media wants to, you can't count McCain out.