Blog

31 October 2008

Obama: Electoral College Landslide?

The media has consistently over-hyped Obama's chances of victory in this coming election. With the economy in the midst of a correction (not a depression as some would have), a war in Iraq that is increasingly unpopular (even though we are nearing victory), and an incumbent president with rather low poll numbers, McCain has an uphill climb. Frankly, this should be a landslide for Obama. The incumbent party has never won an election when the economy is in a downturn, but nonetheless, McCain has fought well. And he might well succeed. The Campaign Spot on the National Review website says that Virginia may not be lost to the Republicans. Northern Virginia, as a percentage of registered voters in the state, has remained almost constant from the 2004 election until now. In fact, the greatest registration increases have come from counties where Bush won by over 60%. These voters could all very well be Democrats, but the situation in VA is not dire for McCain. In Pennsylvania, many people think McCain is crazy for focusing on this state. RealClear has an average of 9.8% in Obama's favor. But he does have a strategy. Rural PA will go Republican, Philadelphia, Democrat. The Northeastern Extension tilts Democrat, but basically splits the vote. Pittsburgh is the area of interest. If McCain can win Pittsburgh by a wide enough margin to offset Philadelphia (maintaining his margins in the rural areas and keeping at least 40% of the vote on the Northeastern Extension), he can win the state. Kerry only won the state by 2.5% (Gore, 4.2%), so it is possible. A Pennsylvania win would offset losses in Colorado, New Mexico, and coupled with a win in VA, would offset a loss in Nevada. McCain needs to win Florida and Ohio, however. And I wouldn't count those states out.
So, yes, McCain faces an uphill climb, but it is achievable. We'll just see how it all plays out on the 4th. As much as the mainstream media wants to, you can't count McCain out.

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03 October 2008

VP Debate

Well, this is what the McCain campaign needed. After the dust settled, even the liberal pundits on the networks were saying that Palin had re-established her credibility. She may not have won the debate. There were certain areas where some criticism may be leveled. There were questions that she didn't answer and she got the name of the general in Afghanistan wrong. But again, Biden didn't answer every question directly, nor did Obama; and Biden claimed that FDR was president and, that FDR announced the gravity of the situation in 1929 on television. So it goes both ways. I personally think that Palin's was of a lesser magnitude. She came pretty close. Biden was way off (Sort of like saying, "It was like when James Madison flew into the Mexico City airstrip to contragulate the victorious troops of the Mexican-American War." Not too historically accurate.). The benefit that Palin had coming in was that she had lost some credibility and was making the McCain ticket lag. People were beginning to question McCain's judgement in picking her as his running mate. The debate now completely changed that. Now she has re-established her credibility and the McCain campaign can focus on the matters at hand and not worrying about their VP pick. So Biden failed in the respect that he needed to make her mess up. He didn't. So now she lives to fight another day. A salutary event in keeping the McCain campaign afloat. Now those poll numbers can start swinging the other way.

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Carolina Review is a journal of conservative thought and opinion published at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Since its founding in 1993, Carolina Review has been the most visible and consistent voice of conservatism on campus.